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Simon's model does not produce Zipf's law: The fundamental rich-get-richer mechanism for any power-law size ranking

Pablo Rosillo-Rodes, Julia Witte Zimmerman, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, and Peter Sheridan Dodds

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Abstract:

Many complex systems are composed of disparate, interacting types of varying 'sizes': Species abundances in ecosystems, firm sizes in markets, city populations in countries, word counts in language, etc. A longstanding mystery of complex systems is Zipf's law, which is the empirical observation that component size decreases as the inverse of component rank—$S \propto r^{-1}$— and its generalization $S \propto r^{-\alpha}$ for $\alpha \ge 0$. Herbert Simon's 1955 theoretical rich-get-richer mechanism for system growth has prevailed as capturing the essential process. But Simon's analysis is in fact flawed: In the limit of zero innovation, the model leads to a winner-takes-all system with $\alpha \rightarrow \infty$, rather than $\alpha \rightarrow 1$. Here, for pure rich-get-richer systems, we derive the time-dependent innovation rate $\rho_t$ that correctly produces power-law size rankings across all $\alpha \ge 0$. To produce Zipf's law, we uncover that $\rho_t$ must decay as the inverse of the log of the number of types, $1/\ln N$. We then show that our time-dependent innovation rate governs type emergence in any system obeying a power-law size-ranking, independent of the underlying mechanism. We demonstrate agreement between our model's output and word rankings in a collection of famous novels, while Simon's model fails. Going forward, our dynamic innovation rate mechanism provides the fundamental, Drosophila-like model for all rich-get-richer systems.
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BibTeX:

@article{rosillo-rodes2026b,
  author =	 {Rosillo-Rodes, Pablo and Zimmerman, Julia Witte and H\'{e}bert-Dufresne, Laurent
                  and Dodds, Peter Sheridan},
  title =	 {Complete asymptotic type-token relationship for
                  growing complex systems with inverse power-law count
                  rankings},
  journal =	 {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.13184},
  year =	 {2026},
  url =		 {https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.13184},
}

 

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