Random paper
 

Blending search queries with social media data to improve forecasts of economic indicators

Y. Li, A. Ahani, H. Zhan, K. Foley, T. Alshaabi, K. Linnell, P. S. Dodds, C. M. Danforth, A. Fox

Times cited: 0

Abstract:

The forecasting of political, economic, and public health indicators using internet activity has demonstrated mixed results. For example, while some measures of explicitly surveyed public opinion correlate well with social media proxies, the opportunity for profitable investment strategies to be driven solely by sentiment extracted from social media appears to have expired. Nevertheless, the internet's space of potentially predictive input signals is combinatorially vast and will continue to invite careful exploration. Here, we combine unemployment related search data from Google Trends with economic language on Twitter to attempt to nowcast and forecast: 1. State and national unemployment claims for the US, and 2. Consumer confidence in G7 countries. Building off of a recently developed search-query-based model, we show that incorporating Twitter data improves forecasting of unemployment claims, while the original method remains marginally better at nowcasting. Enriching the input signal with temporal statistical features (e.g., moving average and rate of change) further reduces errors, and improves the predictive utility of the proposed method when applied to other economic indices, such as consumer confidence.
  • This is the default HTML.
  • You can replace it with your own.
  • Include your own code without the HTML, Head, or Body tags.

BibTeX:

@Article{jamali2021a,
  title =	 {Single-neuronal predictions of others’ beliefs in
                  humans},
  author =	 {Jamali, Mohsen and Grannan, Benjamin L. and
                  Fedorenko, Evelina and Saxe, Rebecca and
                  B{\'a}ez-Mendoza, Raymundo and Williams, Ziv M.},
  journal =	 {Nature},
  pages =	 {1–5},
  year =	 {2021},
  title =	 {Blending search queries with social media data to improve forecasts of economic indicators},
  year =	 {2021},
  note =	 {Available online at \href{https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.06096}{https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.06096}},
}

 

Random paper