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Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion

P. S. Dodds and D. J. Watts

Physical Review Letters, 92, 218701, 2004

Times cited: 641

Abstract:

Models of contagion arise broadly both in the biological and social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the diffusion of innovations and the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we introduce a general model of contagion which, by explicitly incorporating memory of past exposures to, for example, an infectious agent, rumor, or new product, includes the main features of existing contagion models and interpolates between them. We obtain exact solutions for a simple version of the model, finding that under general conditions only three classes of collective dynamics exist, two of which correspond to familiar epidemic threshold and critical mass dynamics, while the third is a distinct intermediate case. We find that for a given length of memory, the class into which a particular system falls is determined by two parameters, each of which ought to be measurable empirically. Our model suggests novel measures for assessing the susceptibility of a population to large contagion events, and also a possible strategy for inhibiting or facilitating them.
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Extra: This paper along with #13 is covered in the 17th and 18th episodes from the 6th Season of Complex Networks (2014); videos and slides available here and here.

BibTeX:

@Article{dodds2004a,
  author =       {Dodds, Peter Sheridan and Watts, D. J.},
  title =        {Universal Behavior in a Generalized Model of Contagion},
  year =         {2004},
  key =          {contagion},
  journal =      {Phys. Rev. Lett.},
  volume =       {92},
  pages =        {218701}
}

 

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